Weekly Notebook Review | Growth↘️, Inflation↗️…stick with the Signal! | September 27, 2023

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Introduction:

• Welcome back, savvy investors! In today's video, we'll dive into an exclusive notebook review of the third quarter of 2023 and year-to-date performance in the financial investment management space.
• Stay tuned as we discuss market trends, signals, positions, and outlook to help you make informed investment decisions.

1. Hedgeye's Philanthropic Success:

• We kick off with Hedgeye's successful charity event, Hedgeye Cares, held recently, showcasing their commitment to making a positive impact.
• Mark your calendars for their upcoming regional event in Chicago on November 9th, where you can network and gain valuable insights.

2. Precious Metals Woes:

• Gold's performance has been lackluster, showing lower lows and lower highs. Hedgeye maintains a small long position but may consider reducing or exiting due to poor performance and increased volatility.
• Other metals, including copper and silver, are also experiencing weakness.
• To balance this, Hedgeye has opted for long energy positions while shorting metals/agriculture.

3. Oil & Natural Gas Rally:

• Oil continues to strengthen with higher lows and higher highs for several weeks. The risk range for oil is moving higher, indicating a positive trend.
• Natural gas is also rallying, witnessing a remarkable surge of over 9.5% in a single day.
• Potential to add natural gas for increased energy exposure, a move worth considering for your investment portfolio.

4. Economic Outlook & Equities:

• The Nowcast model predicts three quarters of slowing growth, elevated inflation, and the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period.
• The momentum in U.S. and European equities is deteriorating, and earnings season will provide valuable insights into the economic landscape.

5. Signals & Trends:

• The red-eye/green-eye signal turned to "sell" mid-morning based on Keith's analysis.
• Multiple sectors, such as real estate, gold miners, consumer staples, industrials, financials, and healthcare, are currently experiencing a bearish trend.
• Volatility (VIX) and the U.S. dollar are displaying significant strength, indicating potential shifts in the market.
• Despite the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes, interest rates are rising, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting the top of the risk range. The 2-year yield range is tighter, contributing

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