The Duran Podcast Minerals deal, back to the sunk cost fallacy
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May 2, 2025 The podcast dives into a controversial minerals deal linked to the Ukraine conflict, highlighting how it distracts from genuine peace efforts. It critiques past U.S. diplomatic failures with Russia, particularly during the Trump administration. Key concessions in recent negotiations raise questions about their true intent, suggesting they may only fund Ukraine rather than support real investment. The episode also explores the political ramifications of foreign engagement, drawing parallels to Nixon's Vietnam challenges and the internal dynamics of upcoming midterm elections.
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Minerals Deal Is A Red Herring
- The minerals deal is a red herring as it can't take effect without peace in Ukraine, which is currently receding.
- The deal favors the US with many concessions by Ukraine, including a 10-year limit and shared profits, but no security guarantees.
Kellogg Plan Diplomatic Failure
- Trump's attempt to negotiate peace using the Kellogg plan failed as Russians rejected any ceasefire on the present contact line.
- Trump ended up stuck with a plan that Russia is unwilling to accept, leading to diplomatic failure and renewed conflict support.
Trade Deal Enables Arms Credit
- Trump shifted back to conventional support for Ukraine, signing a minerals deal that allows the US 50% profits and limits Ukrainian security guarantees.
- This deal enables the US to supply arms to Ukraine on credit, using mineral rights as collateral, dragging the US deeper into the conflict.