China’s New Game Plan for Dealing With Trump Tariffs
Feb 11, 2025
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Shuli Ren, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist focused on China's economy and politics, dives into China's nuanced response to U.S. tariffs imposed during Trump's administration. The discussion reveals how China has adopted a more strategic and less confrontational approach, drawing parallels with Tai Chi. Ren highlights the long-term economic strategies of China versus the U.S.'s short-term focus and addresses the potential consequences of a renewed trade war. He also examines Xi Jinping's steady demeanor and Beijing's efforts to strengthen alliances amid rising tensions.
China's economic reliance on exports amid internal challenges like high youth unemployment limits its ability to retaliate against U.S. tariffs.
The current trade conflict sees a shift in strategy from both nations, with China opting for calculated responses rather than aggressive tariffs to sustain negotiations.
Deep dives
China's Economic Position in Trade Wars
China's current economic situation differs significantly from its position during the first trade war in 2018. The country is now more reliant on its exports and faces considerable internal challenges, including high youth unemployment and a weakened consumer base. This reliance on exports makes China more vulnerable, as it cannot afford to absorb a significant drop in trade with the U.S. Additionally, while the 2018 trade war had a strong consumer base to support its economy, current conditions suggest that consumer spending has diminished, limiting China's ability to retaliate effectively.
The Strategy Shift in U.S.-China Relations
The approach taken by both the U.S. and China in this latest trade conflict reflects lessons learned from previous encounters. Unlike the first trade war where aggressive rhetoric and tit-for-tat tariffs were common, this time, China's response has been more calculated and subdued. They are strategically targeting specific goods like oil and natural gas rather than imposing widespread tariffs. This change aims to mitigate damage while allowing for possible negotiation openings, demonstrating a shift from confrontation toward a more nuanced strategy.
Potential Outcomes and Global Implications
The implications of the trade war extend beyond just U.S.-China relations, potentially affecting global dynamics. With President Trump signaling a broader offensive approach, targeting multiple countries alongside China, there is a concern that this could destabilize existing trade alliances. Concurrently, China sees an opportunity to strengthen ties with other nations that may feel threatened by U.S. policies. This evolving landscape suggests not only a potential for increased tensions between the U.S. and China but also a shift in global power dynamics as countries reassess their strategies in response to U.S. actions.
As US President Donald Trump imposes new tariffs on China, Xi Jinping's government has had a far more muted response than it did during the trade war in Trump’s first term.
On today’s Big Take Asia Podcast, host K. Oanh Ha is joined by Bloomberg editor Jenni Marsh and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Shuli Ren to unpack China’s response to Trump’s barrage of tariffs and discuss what’s at risk for both countries if they find themselves in another trade war.