The 4% Rule: Clearing Up Misconceptions With Its Creator Bill Bengen

I had the pleasure of speaking with Bill Bengen, creator of the "4% Rule" for retirement planning. Bill has been a reader of Financial Samurai for many years and has always been courteous in the comments section when I write about safe withdrawal rates. So, I figured it was time we had a chat to clear up some misconceptions.

For those unfamiliar, the 4% Rule, developed by Bill in the 1990s, suggests that traditional retirees (around age 65) can safely withdraw 4% of their retirement portfolio in the first year—adjusted for inflation in subsequent years—without running out of money over a 30-year period.

Here’s what I learned from Bill that helped clarify the 4% Rule:

1. Not a Hard “Rule”: Bill considers the 4% Rule more of a guideline than a strict rule. He encourages flexibility with withdrawal rates, though it’s often treated as a rigid rule in the public eye.
2. 4% Isn’t Actually Aggressive: Contrary to popular belief, Bill’s data shows that 4% is actually conservative. In his study of 400 retirees since 1926, only one retiree (who retired in 1968) had to stick to a 4% rate to avoid running out of money. The rest withdrew an average of 7% without depleting their portfolios.
3. Adjusting for Inflation: The 4% Rule isn’t static; it adjusts with inflation. For instance, if you start with a $1 million portfolio and withdraw $40,000 one year, you would adjust that amount by inflation the next year to $44,000. This means your withdrawals fluctuate with your financial needs and economic conditions.

You can e-mail bill at Bill@begenfs.com if you have any questions. 

Posts mentioned:

Misconceptions About The 4% Rule With Bill Bengen

The Proper Safe Withdrawal Rate

Finishing Rich In A Low Return Stock Market Environment

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