Kathleen Tyson, an expert on international monetary systems and former member of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, joins the conversation to dissect BRICS' bold moves towards de-dollarization. Tyson delves into the implications of local currency trades and critiques the US dollar's dominance. The discussion navigates the potential of Special Drawing Rights as a new reserve currency and explores capital controls as a way to stabilize economies. Could a currency backed by commodities reshape global trade? Join Tyson for insights into this financial paradigm shift.
BRICS nations are pushing for local currency trade to reduce dependence on the US dollar, effectively enhancing economic security.
Criticism of global institutions like the IMF highlights the need for a new monetary system that better serves the Global South's interests.
Establishing a coherent financial infrastructure for BRICS presents challenges, necessitating legal certainty and interoperability for effective payment systems.
Deep dives
BRICS and Local Currency Trade
The BRICS nations are focusing on increasing local currency trade, with significant progress towards this goal. Currently, over 53% of China’s trade is conducted in yuan, and more than 90% of trade between Russia and China occurs in either yuan or rubles. Additionally, a notable number of countries—from both BRICS and beyond—have committed to local currency trade as a policy measure, with around 80 nations taking steps in this direction in 2023. This movement is underpinned by the desire to mitigate the risks associated with dollar sanctions, highlighting the importance of currency optionality for economic and national security.
Inadequacies of Current Economic Institutions
The existing global economic institutions, such as the IMF and the World Bank, are increasingly criticized for failing to represent the interests of the majority of countries. Many nations, especially those in the Global South, feel that these institutions do not cater to their developmental needs, sparking calls for a new international monetary and financial system. The report from the BRICS Chairmanship articulates this discontent and suggests that the legacy of neoliberalism has hindered genuine progress. This recognition of systemic inadequacies fuels the motivations of BRICS nations to seek alternatives to the dollar-dominated financial structure.
Challenges in Creating a New Financial Infrastructure
The notion of establishing a new financial infrastructure, such as a BRICS payment platform, presents numerous challenges amid existing complexities. While proposals have been introduced for developing a common settlement system, there is no consensus on the specifics, such as jurisdiction and governance. The need for legal certainty remains critical, as many potential host countries like Russia, China, or South Africa face issues related to global perceptions and domestic law. Furthermore, the report indicates the importance of interoperability solutions for domestic payment systems, but the path forward is still fraught with obstacles.
Emerging Commodities and Local Currency Markets
There is a significant focus on establishing local currencies for trade in essential commodities such as grains and energy, among BRICS nations. The proposal to develop hubs for trading grains illustrates an initiative aimed at stabilizing prices and ensuring food security for participating countries, many of which depend on imports. Russia’s dominant position as a grain exporter sets the stage for this development, with potential to stabilize food prices, particularly in the Global South. The overall aim is to localize trade in commodities to fortify economic resilience against external shocks, thus creating a more equitable trading environment.
The Role of Gold and Commodity Stockpiling
Countries like China are increasingly diversifying their reserves by accumulating substantial gold stockpiles alongside other commodities, as part of a broader strategy to safeguard against financial instability. This shift is seen as a proactive measure to ensure that these nations can maintain economic stability amid geopolitical tensions. Additionally, co-investment and development strategies are being explored to convert currency surpluses into productive investments, enhancing regional infrastructure and trade networks. The strategy emphasizes the importance of commodity-backed assets as a stabilizing factor in the financial landscape, potentially offering a buffer against the vulnerabilities inherent in dependency on the dollar.
BRICS plans to transform the international monetary and financial system, and discussed policies at the 2024 summit in Kazan, Russia. Can it successfully challenge the dominance of the US dollar? Political economist Radhika Desai is joined by Ben Norton and former central banker Kathleen Tyson, author of the book "Multicurrency Mercantilism".
VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ejfZdPboo
This is part of the show Geopolitical Economy Hour. You can watch other episodes of the program here: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLDAi0NdlN8hMl9DkPLikDDGccibhYHnDP
You can follow Kathleen on Twitter/X here: https://x.com/kathleen_tyson_
Topics
0:00 Highlight
1:24 Intro: 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia
7:33 Evaluating BRICS proposal to improve financial system
16:47 De-dollarizing trade vs capital markets
24:50 Can a global currency solve the Triffin dilemma?
29:10 Investment flows from poor to rich
30:44 Capital controls
37:16 Could Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) be a new global reserve currency?
42:17 Can a currency backed by a basket of commodities help settle trade imbalances?
48:38 Financial deregulation, Glass-Steagall, and China
53:21 HSBC splits between West and East
55:18 How can central banks de-dollarize reserves?
1:02:35 Controlling finance
1:09:01 What can China do with its huge surplus?
1:16:11 Outro
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