The Bitcoin Layer Global Macro Update: The Fed Isn’t Easing—And Bitcoin Doesn’t Care
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Jun 4, 2025 Dive into the intricate dance of Bitcoin, interest rates, and market liquidity. Discover how the Treasury market's cycles influence Bitcoin's price behavior and what metrics like the Mayer Multiple reveal about its valuation. Uncover the implications of stagnant oil prices on the US dollar during a global monetary reset. Explore bond volatility and the dynamics of the yield curve while evaluating the Federal Reserve's influence on the market. This insight-packed discussion redefines how we understand Bitcoin in today’s macro landscape.
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Treasury Market's Role in Bitcoin
- The Treasury market, especially bond volatility, significantly influences Bitcoin and stock prices.
- High bond volatility correlates with lower Bitcoin prices, and reduced volatility supports price rises.
New Quarterly Bitcoin Cycle
- Bitcoin's price now exhibits a quarterly cycle related to Treasury market liquidity, not just the four-year halving cycle.
- Using this liquidity cycle as a trading signal can potentially outperform Bitcoin's buy-and-hold strategy.
Using Liquidity to Trade Bitcoin
- Use liquidity-based buy-sell triggers to potentially outperform standard buy-and-hold Bitcoin and stock strategies.
- This quantitative approach can provide an edge in asset allocation decisions.
