Epicentrum or Epic Tantrum? Discussing Asean's Indo-Pacific (with Jonathan Head)
Sep 9, 2023
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Jonathan Head, BBC's veteran Southeast correspondent, joins Reformasi Dispatch to discuss Asean's coping with super‑power rivalry in a 'post‑globalization' framework. He highlights conditions in Myanmar, the importance of Indonesia's diplomatic efforts via Asean, and EVs in SE Asia. Jeff and Kevin cover sudden shifts in Indonesia's presidential nominating alliances and the VP sweepstakes maneuvers.
ASEAN's ability to confront China in the South China Sea is limited by diplomatic ties of certain countries like Cambodia and Laos.
Press freedom in Southeast Asia is threatened by limited access to information, legal constraints, and self-censorship.
The ongoing crisis in Myanmar is testing ASEAN's credibility and ability to take effective action.
Deep dives
Thailand's New Government and Challenges Ahead
Thailand's new government, formed through a coalition between the Palang Pacharath Party and hardline conservative parties, faces challenges in addressing the country's economy and lack of public legitimacy. The government's focus is on jump-starting the economy and maintaining stability, while also managing relationships with regional powers like China. The new government's approach is more transactional and less inclined to take principled stands on issues like the political situation in Myanmar.
Press Freedom and Challenges in Southeast Asia
Press freedom in Southeast Asia faces challenges due to limited access to information and the legal environment in which journalists operate. The lack of accountability from governments and companies, difficulties in obtaining visas, and restrictive defamation laws pose obstacles to journalism in the region. The threat of legal action and self-censorship are major concerns. Additionally, the lack of soft power and diplomatic limitations impact media freedom in the region.
China's Relations with ASEAN
China's assertive posture in its relations with ASEAN countries, especially in the South China Sea, raises concerns. Despite tensions, ASEAN countries are limited in their ability to confront China, as demonstrated by Cambodia and Laos' close ties with the country. China's focus is on consolidation of power and creating facts on the ground, minimizing the impact of ASEAN's position on the South China Sea dispute.
ASEAN and Myanmar
The ongoing crisis in Myanmar is a significant challenge for ASEAN. The association's credibility is at stake as it grapples with the humanitarian disaster in Myanmar. Efforts to address the crisis through diplomatic channels, including envoys and summits, are progressing slowly. The suffering in Myanmar continues as ASEAN faces difficulties in taking effective action. The association's handling of the situation will determine its relevance and impact.
Outlook for ASEAN and Geopolitical Dynamics
ASEAN's future remains uncertain as geopolitical dynamics evolve in the region. The Biden administration's engagement with ASEAN and the concept of the Indo-Pacific Forum are signs of changing dynamics. However, there are concerns about the long-term commitment and impact of these initiatives. Challenges such as press freedom, growing tensions with China, and ASEAN's ability to address internal and regional issues shape the outlook for the association.
BBC's veteran Southeast correspondent joins Reformasi Dispatch to assess how Asean is coping with super‑power rivalry in a 'post‑globalization' framework. The answer (spoiler alert): could be better. Jonathan contributes his perspective on conditions in Myanmar and the importance of Indonesia's diplomatic efforts via Asean; he also touches on EVs in SE Asia. Also in the episode: Jeff and Kevin cover some sudden shifts in Indonesia's presidential nominating alliances and the VP sweepstake maneuvers.
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