Tradeoffs BONUS: What Happens if Obamacare Subsidies Shrink?
Sep 29, 2025
In a lively discussion, Jonathan Gruber, a prominent health economist from MIT, dives into the impact of extended federal support on health insurance accessibility. He highlights how enhanced subsidies have facilitated coverage for millions. The conversation explores potential risks if these subsidies shrink, touching on alarming estimates of uninsured rates. Gruber also discusses the role of state interventions and the consequences of high-deductible plans, while fellow economist Katherine Baicker emphasizes the health benefits of insurance versus its costs.
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Subsidies Created A Clear Social Guarantee
- Enhanced ACA subsidies guaranteed consumers would not pay more than 8.5% of income for quality plans.
- That change brought millions into coverage and created a clear social protection signal.
Losing Subsidies Risks Millions Uninsured
- Estimates suggest 2 to 5 million people could lose coverage if enhanced subsidies expire.
- That coverage loss could translate into thousands of additional deaths per year, according to mortality estimates.
Insurance Improves Access And Mental Health
- The evidence overall shows health insurance improves access, mental health, and in larger studies, mortality.
- Small randomized trials like Oregon lacked power to detect mortality effects but showed reduced depression and better access.