Multipolarity Multipolarity Advent Calendar: Day Four
Dec 14, 2025
In a festive format, the hosts delve into Pakistan's critical wheat dependency and how the Indus River supports most of its food production. They explore India's upstream control and the implications of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. The discussion heightens with concerns about changing climate patterns threatening water flows and the potential humanitarian crises that could follow. Intriguingly, they ponder the possibility of wartime water threats and the dire consequences of weaponizing water, blending geopolitics with urgent environmental issues.
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Pakistan's Wheat Dependence Creates Systemic Risk
- Pakistan relies on wheat for ~60% of calories and produces nearly as much as it needs, but 37% of households remain food insecure.
- The Indus River system sustains 80% of Pakistan's food production, concentrating risk in one basin.
Upstream Control Gives India Leverage
- India controls the Indus tributaries upstream and its Punjab region supplies a large share of India's wheat and rice buffers.
- The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty effectively gave India ~20% of the basin's water and Pakistan ~80% with limited Indian hydropower rights.
Climate Variability Threatens Irrigation Timing
- Changing weather patterns and faster Himalayan glacier melt threaten seasonal water availability and timing for irrigation.
- Reduced or mistimed flows can sharply cut yields even without full water cutoff, raising food inflation and insecurity.