The Toronto–St. Paul’s byelection ensured that this political summer would be a hot one, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces serious dissent within his caucus for perhaps the first time since becoming leader in 2013. What does this summer have in store for him and his Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives?

To break it all down, I’m joined again by (most of) the pollster panel.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

Unfortunately, James Valcke was unable to join us this week.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the latest national poll numbers and new developments within the Liberal Party — what does it mean for Justin Trudeau's future? We also chat about where things stand in Ontario and whether an early election call poses any risk to Doug Ford's polling lead. In the mailbag, we guess at who is more likely to step aside — Biden or Trudeau — as well as what to watch in the upcoming LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection. Finally, we close with a Quiz on the 1997 federal election.

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