Mark Galeotti, a renowned Russia analyst and author, shares insightful perspectives on the war in Ukraine and the complexities of Russian foreign policy. He discusses Russia's military strategies that aim to disrupt Western support and highlights the psychological tactics of intimidation and sabotage. Galeotti examines the troubling connections between the Kremlin and organized crime, as well as the burgeoning alliance between North Korea and Russia. Additionally, he addresses cyber threats and Russia's economic resilience amid changing political dynamics.
Russia's three-pronged military strategy in Ukraine aims to solidify territorial gains while undermining Ukrainian morale through infrastructural attacks and psychological warfare.
The Kremlin's use of organized crime for covert operations indicates a strategic shift that complicates accountability in international relations amidst heightened sanctions and diplomatic tensions.
Deep dives
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Impact of Russian Military Strategy in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing military strategy in Ukraine reflects a three-pronged approach aimed at altering the front lines and impacting the Ukrainian will to resist. The first tactic involves advancing on the Donbass front to solidify territorial gains before potential political changes in the U.S. The second focuses on debilitating Ukrainian infrastructure during winter to exert psychological pressure. Finally, Russia employs provocative missile tests and nuclear rhetoric to discourage Western support for Ukraine, utilizing such acts as instruments of psychological warfare.
Psychological Warfare and Information Dominance
Russia's strategy encompasses psychological operations intended to undermine Western confidence and cohesion regarding Ukraine. This includes the intentional disruption of Western diplomatic operations, as seen in the forced closure of American embassies in Kyiv due to rumors of impending airstrikes. Such tactics are designed to create a sense of fear and uncertainty, positioning the Kremlin as an assertive player in the information sphere. This approach underscores the importance of psychological tactics in modern warfare, emphasizing that wars are often fought as much in minds as on battlefields.
Sabotage Operations and Organized Crime
The Kremlin's reliance on organized crime for carrying out proxy sabotage operations indicates a shift in tactics following increased sanctions and diplomatic expulsions. Criminal organizations now serve as intermediaries for various covert actions, allowing the state to avoid direct association while still achieving strategic objectives. This method leverages digital platforms for recruitment, often leaving the hired individuals unaware of their role in a broader scheme. As this relationship deepens, it raises concerns about the potential normalization of such tactics in the context of international relations.
In this extended Frontline conversation, Kate Gerbeau speaks to the writer and Russia analyst Mark Galeotti about the war in Ukraine.
The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists.