Insiders predict a tumultuous 2025 for biopharma amid rising layoffs and drug shortages. The impact of political shifts on health policies raises crucial questions. Analysts forecast an uptick in mergers and acquisitions, even with challenges lingering from 2024. The landscape of GLP-1 drug supplies looks more promising, hinting at a recovery. Meanwhile, soaring clinical trial costs and the growing role of AI signal a need for innovative solutions in research. The future holds both uncertainty and potential for this dynamic industry.
The biopharma industry is experiencing a significant rise in layoffs among large pharmaceutical companies, indicating a broader trend affecting established players rather than just startups.
Political shifts under a potential Trump administration may influence health policy, but major changes to drug pricing or mergers are unlikely, suggesting stability in the biopharma landscape.
Deep dives
Trends in the Biopharma Industry
The podcast highlights significant trends in the biopharma sector for the upcoming years, particularly 2025. A consistent theme is the stabilization of layoffs, with a notable rise in job cuts among larger pharmaceutical companies compared to previous years. This suggests a shift where layoffs are no longer confined only to biotech startups but are affecting established players as well. Analysts anticipate a gentle recovery in the market following the turbulence of 2022 and 2023, suggesting that the industry is adapting to new conditions without drastic changes.
Impact of Political and Legislative Changes
Political dynamics are examined concerning their potential influence on the biopharma landscape, particularly under a new administration. Analysts predict that while some amendments may occur, significant shifts in health policies, especially relating to drug pricing and mergers, are unlikely. The Trump administration's historical inclination toward deregulation could favor biopharma companies, easing some restrictions on mergers and acquisitions. Concerns exist regarding the future of legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act, but an outright repeal is viewed as improbable, leaving many in the industry expecting a continuation of the status quo.
GLP-1 Drugs and Supply Issues
Supply challenges surrounding GLP-1 medications are a major focus, reflecting unprecedented demand for diabetes and obesity treatments such as Ozempic and Wegovy. Companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are beginning to resolve manufacturing shortages, although some supply issues persist. This situation raises questions about the role of compounding pharmacies, which have been filling gaps during shortages and are now facing legal challenges as these shortages are addressed. Industry experts indicate a positive outlook for supply in the future but caution that transitioning patients from compounded versions to branded drugs introduces complexities that need attention.
Following the strange year for the biopharma industry that was 2024, insiders and analysts alike are waiting expectantly to see how trends in layoffs, drug shortages, clinical trials and more play out in 2025. Meanwhile, a second Trump term and a spree of related health agency nominations raise serious questions about how health policy could shift over the next 12 months and beyond.
In this week’s episode of “The Top Line,” we explore the trends that defined the industry in 2024 and tackle predictions about how 2025 could shake out for biopharmas big and small. Fierce Pharma’s Fraiser Kansteiner and Fierce Biotech’s Gabrielle Masson discuss 2024’s layoff count, the state of GLP-1 supplies, the future of clinical trial research, potential policy shakeups and more.