Paul B. Stares, a senior fellow for conflict prevention, explores the chaotic landscape of 2024. He discusses the alarming rise of domestic terrorism and political violence linked to election polarization in the U.S. Stares highlights how this unrest might weaken America's global credibility. He also addresses the migration crisis at the southern border, stressing the urgent need to tackle root causes. Additionally, he emphasizes the often-overlooked influence of climate change on future conflicts, suggesting a tumultuous year ahead.
The growing political polarization in the U.S. raises alarms about potential domestic terrorism, especially concerning the upcoming presidential election.
Escalating regional instability in the Middle East, particularly involving U.S. involvement, poses challenges for foreign policy and domestic public sentiment.
Deep dives
Domestic Political Violence Risks
Growing political polarization in the United States is identified as a significant concern for 2024, raising the potential for acts of domestic terrorism, especially surrounding the upcoming presidential election. Analysts express fears that incendiary political rhetoric could lead to extreme actions, reflecting the anxiety stemming from past incidents like the January 6 Capitol riot. The survey highlights that this is the first inclusion of domestic conflict in such assessments, underlining the extreme unease among experts regarding the potential for violence at events such as political conventions and polling stations. Alongside security measures for candidates and events, there's a systemic worry about how these domestic issues could affect U.S. foreign policy credibility, especially if adversaries exploit divisions within the country.
Escalation of Middle East Conflicts
The ongoing conflict in Gaza has escalated into broader regional tensions, with fears that U.S. involvement could lead to a larger war in the Middle East. Since the October 7 Hamas attacks, retaliatory actions by the U.S. against Iranian-backed militants and mounting violence involving groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen suggest a potential spread of conflict across national borders. Foreign policy experts emphasize that such regional instability not only distracts from U.S. support for allies like Ukraine but also risks igniting domestic unrest as public sentiment regarding U.S. foreign actions shifts. Efforts to mitigate this escalation involve diplomatic engagement and military deterrence, underscoring the complexity of stabilizing the situation amidst growing geopolitical threats.
The Migration Crisis at the Southern Border
A significant migration crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border has emerged, with record numbers of individuals arriving due to a combination of economic hardship and violence in their home countries. By 2023, millions were reported crossing into the U.S. unregulated, leading to an overwhelmed border system that has become a contentious political issue. Experts warn that the influx presents complex challenges, from the wellbeing of the migrants to national security concerns related to drug trafficking and social strain within local communities. Solutions proposed focus on both immediate border security measures and longer-term efforts aimed at improving conditions in source countries to address the root causes of migration.
Every January, CFR’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey analyzes the conflicts most likely to occur in the year ahead and measures their potential impact. For the first time, the survey predicts that this year/in 2024 the United States will contend not only with a slew of global threats, but also a high risk of upheaval within its own borders. Is the country prepared for the eruption of election-related instability at home while wars continue to rage abroad?
Featured Guest:
Paul B. Stares (General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action)
