Episode 43 - Monte Carlo With Unkonwn Backlog Size
Mar 28, 2022
auto_awesome
Agile expert Nisha, product management specialist Dan, and software development guru Prateek explore using Monte Carlo simulation to forecast completion times for products when backlog size is unknown. They discuss utilizing the simulation for project estimation with uncertain work item counts, managing uncertainty in backlog items, and forecasting future work in Agile projects through historical data analysis and simulations.
Forecasting with uncertain backlogs requires Monte Carlo simulation with ranges for accurate estimation.
Continuous forecasting with Monte Carlo simulations enables dynamic project planning and adaptability to changing circumstances.
Deep dives
Challenges in Monte Carlo Simulation Forecasting
When the exact number of items in a backlog is unknown, running a Monte Carlo simulation for forecasting becomes a challenge. Typically, backlogs do not have exact item counts, making it hard to predict project completion dates. The podcast discussed an example where the MVP had a known item count, but the additional features were uncertain, requiring a range for estimation. This uncertainty highlights the importance of realistic forecasting methods that accommodate variability in project scopes.
Utilizing Monte Carlo Simulation with Ranges
To address uncertainty in backlog item counts, the podcast suggested using ranges in Monte Carlo simulations. By inputting a range instead of an exact figure, the simulation can provide more flexible forecasts to determine project timelines. An example was shared where a range of 40-50 items was used for estimation, showcasing the adaptability of Monte Carlo simulations to handle varying project scopes.
Continuous Forecasting and Adaptation
The podcast emphasized the need for continuous forecasting to account for evolving project dynamics. By regularly updating forecasts based on new information and adjusting assumptions, teams can refine their project plans dynamically. This iterative forecasting approach ensures that estimates remain relevant and accurate as projects progress, enabling teams to adapt to changing circumstances and optimize their delivery timelines.
Want to forecast a release but don't know exactly how many items are in your backlog? Want to know when a bunch of features will finish but haven't broken them down yet? Find out how in this week's episode of Drunk Agile with Nisha, Dan, and Prateek!
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode