Geopolitics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered its second year and has had significant implications for commodity markets. Initially, there were expectations of a major disruption in Russian oil supply, which led to a rise in oil prices. However, the anticipated disruption did not fully materialize, and geopolitics started to fade as a market driver. Nevertheless, Russian oil supply has seen a decline since the start of the year, raising questions about the future prospects of Russian energy production. The impact of the war and subsequent sanctions could hamper financing and equipment acquisition, potentially leading to a continued decline in Russian oil output.