19: Can a US Arsenal of Democracy Handle Conflicts on Three Fronts? (feat. Jack Detsch)
Feb 7, 2024
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Foreign Policy's Jack Detsch joins host Marshall Kosloff to discuss the United States' modern Arsenal of Democracy and its ability to handle conflicts on three fronts: Ukraine, the Middle East, and Taiwan. They explore the challenges faced in rebuilding the arsenal, sourcing weapons, and mobilization differences between the US and Europe. The podcast also highlights the Pentagon's defense industrial strategy and collaborations, while analyzing potential conflicts and the capacity of China and Russia.
The United States is facing the possibility of conflicts on three fronts - Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific.
Efforts to rebuild the arsenal of democracy involve increasing production rates of critical munitions like artillery ammunition and precision-guided munitions.
Collaboration among countries and allies is essential, but the specific alignment and involvement of European countries may vary depending on the conflict zone.
Deep dives
Challenges facing the Pentagon in rebuilding the arsenal of democracy
The Pentagon is facing challenges in rebuilding the arsenal of democracy to address potential conflicts in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. The lack of existing infrastructure and factories from World War II makes it necessary to build this capacity from scratch. The urgency arises from the need to source weapons for three different conflicts, including supporting Ukraine against Russia, preparing for a potential conflict with China over Taiwan, and addressing the ongoing conflict in Israel. The scope of revitalization required is vast, involving the production of artillery, precision-guided munitions, and denial weapons. The issue extends beyond the United States, as European countries are also involved in mobilizing their defense industrial base to support Ukraine and other conflict zones.
Measurement of capacity and challenges in different weapon categories
The Pentagon is measuring its capacity and challenges across various weapon systems, including artillery ammunition, sea-launched weapons, and precision-guided munitions. Efforts are underway to increase production rates, with the United States moving faster than its European counterparts. The shortage of critical munitions poses a significant challenge, especially in conflict zones like Ukraine, where the need for artillery ammunition is urgent. The demand for precision-guided munitions also outpaces supply, with potential shortages anticipated in the event of a conflict in Taiwan. As the production rates increase, attention is given to strategic trade-offs, ensuring that resources are allocated efficiently and prioritizing the unique needs of each conflict zone.
Complexities of international collaboration and conflict-specific challenges
The task of rebuilding the arsenal of democracy involves an interconnected group of countries and allies collaborating to produce munitions. However, the response varies depending on the specific conflicts. While European countries are primarily focusing on supporting Ukraine, their alignment with the United States on issues related to Taiwan and Israel may differ. European countries are mobilizing to put NATO members on a war footing, but the extent of their involvement in conflicts outside their immediate borders remains uncertain. Furthermore, the historical context of World War II, where factories were repurposed and plentiful, differs from the current situation where factories need to be built from scratch. Despite the challenges, there is creativity and optimism in finding bespoke solutions, fostering collaboration, and addressing the limitations of the defense industrial base.
Timeline and urgency in addressing the challenges
The timeline for addressing the challenges of rebuilding the arsenal of democracy is critical due to the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape. Adm. Phil Davidson suggests a window of the next five years for potential conflicts, particularly regarding China's increasing naval capacity and the urgency to support Ukraine. However, the ability to sustain a prolonged conflict and carry out military pressure indefinitely raises questions about the breaking points and industrial capacities of potential adversaries. The timeline for capacity-building efforts by the United States and its allies spans from two to five years, with the need for timely action and a focus on strategic trade-offs. The upcoming U.S. elections also add uncertainty, as the level of investment and commitment to the industrialization strategy may differ depending on the administration.
Structural limitations and the need for rebuilding factories
The rebuilding of the arsenal of democracy faces structural limitations due to the hollowing out of the defense industrial base that began in the 1990s. Unlike the excess capacity available during World War II, the current challenge is to build new factories and infrastructure. Efforts are underway to establish a 155 shell factory in Texas, but European countries have not yet seen the construction of brick-and-mortar factories on their soil. The dwindling time frame and the need to deliver mass quantities of munitions pose additional challenges. The question of whether this is primarily a financial or structural problem is a matter of debate, but the reality is that the urgency and complexity of the task require innovative solutions and sustained effort.
Potential conflicts and breaking points
The potential conflicts in Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan present different challenges and breaking points. The lack of artillery ammunition is a significant concern, as the Ukrainians are outmatched in terms of firing capacity against Russian forces. Precision-guided munitions face rapid depletion, and the need to deliver these munitions on a large scale poses logistical challenges. The breaking point for adversaries such as Russia and China in sustaining their military pressure is also under scrutiny. The timeline for potential conflicts ranges from the next few years to 2027, emphasizing the urgency of addressing the challenges posed by the evolving geopolitical landscape. The political dynamics and elections also influence the level of investment and commitment to industrialization strategies.
Amid ongoing war in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as China’s looming threat over Taiwan, the United States faces the possibility of wars on three fronts. Can America's modern Arsenal of Democracy sustain such engagement? Will US allies join the efforts? Foreign Policy's Jack Detsch joins host Marshall Kosloff to answer these questions and more.
