Short Wave Coronavirus Models Aren't "Wrong." That's Not How They Work.
Apr 20, 2020
Nurith Aizenman, an NPR global health correspondent, breaks down the art and science of disease modeling. She explains that these models are not crystal balls but essential tools that help public health experts prepare for scenarios. The discussion touches on how the initial projections during COVID-19 influenced social distancing measures and how real-time data helps refine predictions. Aizenman also dives into the psychological factors that affect public behavior, highlighting the challenges of modeling human responses amidst a pandemic.
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White House Press Conference
- On March 31st, the White House held a press conference about social distancing guidelines.
- They cited models predicting 100,000-200,000 deaths with mitigation efforts.
Models as Forecasts
- Models are not meant to be perfectly accurate predictions of the future.
- They are forecasts that help us prepare, similar to weather forecasts.
IHME Model Origins
- The IHME model, developed by Chris Murray, was initially used by hospitals in Washington state.
- It gained attention and was eventually used by the White House Coronavirus Task Force.