Once every four years in the United States, there is this thing called a "presidential election." It's a pretty boring affair, in that there is so much harmony amongst the electorate, and the two main candidates are pretty indistinguishable when it comes to their world views, policy ideas, and temperaments. But, despite the blandness of the contest, digging in to how the professionals go about forecasting the outcome is an intriguing topic. It turns out that forecasting, be it of the political or the marketing variety, is chock full of considerations like data quality, the quantification of uncertainty, and even () the opportunity to run simulations! On this episode, we sat down with G. Elliott Morris, creator of The Crosstab newsletter and a member of the political forecasting team for The Economist, to chat about the ins and outs of predicting the future with a limited set of historical data and a boatload of uncertainty. For complete show notes, including links to items mentioned in this episode and a transcript of the show, visit the show page.