Senior science policy analyst at the American Institute of Physics, Will Thomas, discusses the history of R&D policy. Topics include military learning, origins of operations research, market in defense, technology readiness levels, similarities between healthcare and defense, debate in RAND, Arrow vs Alchian perspectives, R&D process challenges, centralization vs decentralization, increasing returns to scale, challenges of transferring scientific results, and satisficing vs optimizing in decision-making.
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German Radar Development Gap
During WWII, the British Branch of MIT's Radiation Lab was in Germany, interviewing German radar scientists.
They discovered a gap between German scientists, industrialists, and the military, hindering their radar development.
insights INSIGHT
Government's Role in R&D Funding
Deciding when to stop funding a project requires considering feasibility and cost.
The government's role is supporting speculative R&D projects, balancing potential with cost-plus contract risks.
insights INSIGHT
Avoiding Premature Commitment
Kenneth Arrow and Armen Alchian advocated for supporting diverse development projects before committing to specific technologies.
Their main concern was avoiding premature commitment, aligning with current prototyping emphasis.
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I was pleased to speak with Will Thomas on the Acquisition Talk podcast. He is a senior science policy analyst at the American Institute of Physics, and is a historian of science and technology. His book is Rational Action: The Sciences of Policy in Britain and America, 1940-1960. There is a ton of interesting facts and useful analysis in the history of how the military learned how to learn, with clear application for today's debates on innovation.
During the discussion we touch on a wide-range of issues, including the origins of operations research, whether a market in defense can actually exist, the separation of R&D from production -- and whether software considerations have changed the logic, the uses of technology readiness levels, similarities and differences between healthcare and defense, and the experience of Donald Trump's uncle, John, who was head of the British Branch of MIT's radiation lab during WWII.
The talk features an analysis of the debate in RAND between systems analysts like ES Quade and luminary economists like Kenneth Arrow and Armen Alchian, who favored a sequential decision-making in R&D due to the prevalence of uncertainty. I tried to pick apart some distinctions between Arrow and Alchian, characterizing the former as more of an optimizer using an allocation paradigm and the latter as more evolutionary using an exchange paradigm. Will responds that I was over-interpreting Arrow, and that the goal of both was to support policies of government support to exploratory development without locking in technical configurations prematurely.
I'd like to thank Will for joining me on the Acquisition Talk podcast. Be sure to check out his website which includes links to his book Rational Action and nearly a dozen fascinating articles. Here is his paper on Donald Trump's uncle, "A profile of John Trump, Donald’s oft-mentioned scientist uncle." His Twitter handle is @GWilliamThomas and he occasionally blogs at EtherWave. Will also recommends reading David Edgerton, among others, on the history of science and technology.
This podcast was produced by Eric Lofgren. Soundtrack by urmymuse: "reflections of u". You can follow us on Twitter @AcqTalk and find more information at AcquisitionTalk.com.
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