From Aleppo to Tehran: A Middle East on Edge

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Dec 3, 2024

Haviv Rettig Gur, a senior analyst at The Times of Israel, dives into the escalating chaos in the Middle East, particularly focusing on the recent offensive in Aleppo amidst Syria's civil war. He explains how this conflict threatens to destabilize the region further, with Iran's influence lurking behind the scenes. The fragility of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is also discussed, alongside Israel's ongoing military operations against Hamas in Gaza. The interconnected nature of these tensions could reshape alliances and power dynamics throughout the Middle East.

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INSIGHT

The Middle East's Fragile State System

The Middle East's state system, imposed by Europeans, doesn't reflect ground realities, causing instability.
Deep-rooted religious and ethnic divides form alliances across nations, undermining the nation-state concept.

INSIGHT

Assad's Destabilizing Influence

Assad's regime destabilizes Syria by creating conflicts between ethnic and religious groups.
His actions have led to immense suffering, including 600,000 deaths and millions displaced.

INSIGHT

Identity Coherence and Stability

European-imposed borders in the Middle East don't align with existing identities, causing instability.
Stable countries have a coherent identity, unlike Syria and other heterogeneous nations.

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This week marked a dramatic escalation in Syria’s 13-year civil war. Rebel factions launched their most audacious offensive in years, capturing Aleppo, the focal point of the war for over a decade. This marked the most serious challenge to President Bashar al-Assad’s government and its Russian- and Iranian-backed allies in nearly a decade.

Syrian and Russian forces are currently unleashing joint air strikes in a desperate attempt to reclaim the city. Iran has thrown its weight behind al-Assad, promising increased support to shore up his faltering grip on power.

But Syria is just one piece of a much larger—and far more dangerous—puzzle.

The Middle East is on a knife’s edge. Just last week, Israel and Hezbollah reached a fragile ceasefire along the Lebanon border, but tensions remain high. In Gaza, Israel has continued its operations against Hamas, who still hold 63 hostages. And then there’s Iran—the architect of much of the region’s instability—whose escalating provocations make it seem like a direct war with Israel is no longer a question of if, but when.

These conflicts are deeply interconnected, and the fall of one domino could set off far-reaching consequences. The potential power vacuum left by a weakened al-Assad regime could reshape alliances and alter the balance of power in ways that reverberate from Tehran to Tel Aviv, and from Moscow to Washington.

To help us make sense of these rapidly unfolding events and their implications for the region, Michael Moynihan is joined today by Haviv Rettig Gur, a senior analyst at The Times of Israel and one of the sharpest minds on Middle East politics.

In this conversation, they unpack what’s going on in Syria, the root causes of tribal war and dysfunction across the Arab world, the ceasefire in Lebanon, what comes next in Gaza, the weakening of Iran, and what all of this means for Israel and the United States.

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