Unpacking the opportunity in developed market equities
Nov 21, 2023
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Tim Woodhouse, Portfolio Manager in our International Equity Group, joins David Lebovitz to discuss cross-border investing, valuations, sector themes, corporate governance, and more in the context of developed market equities. Key topics include opportunities in Europe and Japan, differences in pricing, globalization, post-COVID rebound in the Japanese economy, challenges in Europe's energy self-sufficiency, and the argument for exposure to Europe despite potential risks.
Developed markets outside of the US offer attractive investment opportunities due to valuations and growth potential compared to high-growth companies in the US.
Europe's sector composition, market stability, and appealing valuations make it an interesting market for investment.
Deep dives
The Macro Case for Developed Markets Outside of the US
Developed markets outside of the US have underperformed the US equity market in the past decade. However, the macro case for these markets lies in valuations and growth potential. Valuations have been impacted by falling rates, but this tailwind is unlikely to continue. Growth, therefore, becomes crucial, especially compared to high-growth companies in the US. Europe's economic situation is challenging, but its shift to more stable sectors and low valuations make it an interesting market. Additionally, the trend of countries trading more with familiar partners benefits European businesses operating in the US. This might be the moment to reconsider international investments.
Opportunities in Europe
Europe offers opportunities due to its sector composition, market stability, and appealing valuations. The top three sectors have shifted from energy, mining, and banks to pharmaceuticals, capital goods, and food and beverage. These sectors boast higher return on equity (ROE) and stability. Despite lower long-term growth forecasts for Europe compared to the US, Europe's attractiveness increases considering its long-term price-earnings ratio (PE) and its positions in specific industries where it dominates. The Bridgewater study highlights that even modest European earnings would still provide a break-even equity risk premium, supporting the argument for investing in Europe.
The Outlook for Japan
Japan presents a mixed case, with positive factors such as post-COVID rebound, wage growth, and corporate governance improvements. However, the aging workforce and its potential impact on consumption pose risks. The challenge of yield curve control, implications on interest rates and the yen, and the low quality of some companies' returns also need consideration. Skepticism remains on whether corporate governance reform will lead to meaningful changes, better capital allocation, and higher valuations. While short-term opportunities may exist, the structural opportunity and growth potential in Japan are still uncertain.
While over the past decade developed market equities have overwhelmingly lagged behind their U.S. counterparts, the case for international markets still exists, with Japan and Europe offering attractive investment opportunities. On this episode, David Lebovitz is joined by Tim Woodhouse, a Portfolio Manager in our International Equity Group, to discuss cross-border investing, valuations, sector themes, corporate governance and more.
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