Macro in a more dangerous world, UK CPI preview, bond vigilantes, and the US energy export surge

With US and UK strikes on Houthis in the headlines and Taiwanese voting in their flashpoint election, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpicks what the now- clichéd idea that we live in a “more dangerous world” actually means for thinking through macro risk.

He discusses with David Wilder our framework for looking at a world that’s fracturing into competing economic blocs and what this means for globalisation, as well as how the US election outcome in November could radically shift the narrative.

Neil also previews the coming week’s UK CPI release and explains what it could mean for the timing of rate cuts and talks about what the return of bond vigilantes means for governments in a higher rate world.

Plus, last year was a watershed moment for the global energy market as the US became the largest exporter of LNG. Bill Weatherburn from our Commodities team has just completed five-year forecasts which show another 60% surge in US energy net exports.

He tells David what will drive the surge, discusses the potential impact of November’s election and what this all means for the global economy.

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