This week on the Value Perspective we welcome author and consultant Luca Dellanna as our guest.  Luca is the author of 10 books, but his latest on the topic of ergodicity has really caught our attention. Ergodicity is a revolutionary concept that challenges traditional thinking. It posits that by focusing on maximising short-term outcomes, we can ensure long-term success. Luca’s book breaks down this complex idea into an accessible and understandable format. Ergodicity is fundamentally about the impact of time on our decisions. Imagine deciding whether to invest all of your money in a high-risk stock that could either soar by 500% or plummet to zero. Ergodicity helps you to navigate such decisions and often leads to a profound shift in how we think about risk and reward. In this episode we discuss: why ergodicity is so difficult to understand and how it could be rebranded; why do we often forget about survival bias, even though we understand it; the pros and cons of Monte Carlo modelling; and finally, issues with other concepts like skin in the game. Enjoy!

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