Keith McCullough: Skate To Where The Market Is Going

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Sep 17, 2025

Danny welcomes Keith McCullough, Founder of Hedgeye and former Yale hockey captain. Keith shares how his disciplined sports background shaped his finance career. He discusses the quad system for understanding economic phases and market analysis, emphasizing current bullish views on small-cap stocks. The conversation dives into his shift from hedge funds to creating independent insights and highlights Hedgeye's community initiatives, like supporting local youth sports. Keith offers a refreshing blend of investment strategy and social responsibility.

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ADVICE

Use Risk Ranges For Discipline

Use explicit risk ranges to manage entries and exits: sell near the top and buy near the bottom of the range.
Keith says this prevents chasing and emotional trading and enforces disciplined decision-making.

INSIGHT

Quads Simplify Macro Regimes

Hedgeye's quad system maps macro regimes to market behavior and predicts major drawdowns when growth and inflation decelerate together.
Keith uses front-running signals to time quad shifts rather than just stating economic outcomes.

INSIGHT

Quad Count Drives Positioning

Hedgeye uses a 'quad count' for the next three quarters and currently sees a transition from quad three to quad two, then to quad one.
That progression supports broadening rallies and justifies Hedgeye's bullish positioning in small- and mid-cap stocks.

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Danny welcomes Keith McCullough, founder of Hedgeye and a former Yale hockey captain, to discuss his journey from Yale hockey to Wall Street and the establishment of his independent research firm, Hedgeye. Keith shares insights on his disciplined work ethic, cultivated through hockey, and how it translates to his work in finance. He reflects on his career at various hedge funds and the lessons learned about market cycles and risk management. The episode delves into Hedgeye's unique product offerings and the quad system used for market analysis. Keith explains the importance of understanding market flows and discusses current market positions, including his bullish stance on small-cap stocks amidst changing economic conditions. Finally, Keith highlights Hedgeye's charitable efforts and community involvement through initiatives like supporting the Bridgeport Youth League.--
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For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.
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