The NewsWorthy Special Edition: Is the Economy Getting Better or Worse?
Dec 20, 2025
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, offers keen insights into the U.S. economy's fragility. He highlights the weak job market and rising recession risks, estimating a 40–45% chance of downturn next year. Zandi discusses how AI could enhance productivity but may also lead to job losses. He emphasizes that policy changes, like rolling back tariffs, could improve affordability for many Americans. With inflation concerns and slow growth likely to persist, Zandi advises listeners to save and upskill in AI-related areas to navigate the uncertain landscape.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Fragile Growth Despite Positive GDP
- The U.S. economy is growing about 2% after inflation but that growth is fragile and not absorbing labor force entrants.
- Weak job creation and rising unemployment make the expansion tenuous and elevate recession risk to ~40–45% next year.
Jobs Are The Tipping Point
- Job creation has effectively stalled and payroll gains are concentrated in healthcare, leaving many sectors flat or shedding jobs.
- If businesses move from hiring freezes to layoffs, the economy could tip into recession rapidly.
AI's Narrow Path Between Boom And Bust
- AI could boost productivity but risks replacing jobs if adoption accelerates too fast in a weak hiring environment.
- The safest path is moderate adoption that satisfies investors without triggering mass layoffs.