Bankless The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks | Michael Howell
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Nov 24, 2025 
Michael Howell, a global liquidity analyst and founder of CrossBorder Capital, dives into the intricacies of liquidity cycles that shape asset markets. He explains a critical 65-month cycle impacting everything from Bitcoin to gold. Howell discusses concerns over rising debt maturities, shifts from Fed QE to Treasury QE, and the implications of US stablecoins versus China's gold-backed strategy. His insights on asset allocation and the risk of a forthcoming liquidity crunch make for a compelling listen for anyone curious about the financial landscape.
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What Global Liquidity Actually Measures
- Global Liquidity measures money in financial markets, not M2 or bank deposits.
- It captures repo, shadow banking, and international security flows that drive asset prices.
The 65-Month Debt Refinancing Cycle
- Global liquidity momentum follows a robust ~65-month cycle tied to average debt maturity.
- That cycle last troughed in Oct 2022 and is slated to peak around late 2025.
Debt Refinancing Is The Market's Core
- Modern capital markets are mostly debt-refinancing, not new capital for investment.
- Liquidity and debt form a nexus: debt needs liquidity to roll and liquidity needs debt as collateral.
