Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 3rd, 2025
17 snips
Nov 3, 2025 Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley, discusses stock valuations and posits a rolling recovery ahead. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran shares insights into Fed policy, warning of risks from private credit. Amanda Lynam from BlackRock highlights the tech sector's debt issuance trends and its effects on the credit market. Nancy Lazar, Chief Economist at Piper Sandler, offers alternative data perspectives, noting improvements in the labor market driven by manufacturing-led hiring and onshoring trends.
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Policy Has Passively Tightened Over 2025
- Stephen Miran argues policy has passively tightened because neutral rates fell after shocks, making current policy more restrictive relative to neutral.
- He warns keeping policy restrictive for long raises the risk that lags in monetary transmission trigger an economic downturn.
Markets Can Mask Real Tightness
- Miran cautioned that market gains (AI, stocks) can mask tighter financial conditions in housing and private credit.
- He highlighted housing and private markets as more relevant to the cyclical economy than headline equity moves.
Consider 50bp Steps If Forecast Warrants
- Stephen Miran said he could support faster easing in 50bp increments rather than 25bp if his forecast holds and data warrant it.
- He urged making policy based on forward-looking forecasts, not slavishly on short-term data gaps from the shutdown.