Nick Foster: What If Most Predictions About the Future Are Just Noise?

 

 

Nick Foster, former head of design at Google X — the “moonshot factory” — and author of Could, Should, Might, Don’t: How We Think About the Future, joins us to discuss his stunning conclusion that human beings are terrible at predicting the future, calling most forecasts “mostly nonsense.”

For leaders, this insight is absolutely essential: we’re constantly asked to make or evaluate predictions that shape strategies, investments, and organizational futures. Foster’s book provides a vital framework to assess these pitches, helping leaders navigate the uncertainty of forecasts (whether making them or receiving them) with clarity and skepticism, avoiding costly missteps.

Foster outlines four mindsets—Could, Should, Might, Don’t—that define how people generally pitch future outcomes. Each carries strengths but also huge traps that can derail effective decision-making:

The “Could” mindset fuels bold visions, like Theranos’ claim of running hundreds of blood tests from a single drop. But unchecked optimism can obscure feasibility, leading to failures that leaders, swayed by hype, might miss.

The “Should” mindset, as seen in Blockbuster’s focus on in-store rentals, aligns with identity but can blind leaders to disruptive shifts like streaming.

The “Might” mindset relies on data, as Sears did before missing e-commerce, yet past trends can mislead when predicting new realities.

The “Don’t” mindset, like Kodak’s resistance to digital photography, protects strengths but risks stagnation.

Through stories from his career at Google, Dyson, and beyond, Foster reveals how these mindsets manifest in boardrooms and why they often fail. He equips leaders with tools to spot red flags—over-optimism in “Could” pitches, rigidity in “Should” arguments, outdated data in “Might” forecasts, or fear-driven “Don’t” resistance. Drawing from his time at Google’s X lab, where he asked “dumb questions” to unpack emerging tech, Foster urges non-technical leaders to embrace curiosity to challenge predictions without being swayed by charisma or budgets.

Foster’s key takeaway? Leaders must approach predictions—whether their own or others’—with rigorous skepticism, using his framework to test ideas while staying open to change. Leaders must learn to challenge all predictions when tasked with making high-stakes decisions or evaluating pitches that could shape their organization’s future. This episode explores how to navigate uncertainty, avoid flawed forecasts, and make smarter choices in a prediction-obsessed world, offering a clear-eyed guide for leaders steering businesses or personal goals.

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