The podcast explores the lifecycle of greed and fear in investing, starting with the innocent idea of being right and owed something. It delves into the origins and consequences of greed in human behavior, including competition, delusion, recognition, and addictive behaviors. Greed eventually gives way to fear, self-doubt, and ignorance, leading to a cycle of survival mode.
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Quick takeaways
Greed starts with the feeling of deserving a reward for efforts and views, fueled by competition and social comparison.
As greed progresses, delusion creeps in, leading to overconfidence and increasingly risky behavior, eventually culminating in fear and capitulation.
Deep dives
The Life Cycle of Greed and Fear
The podcast explores the innate part of human nature that forms the life cycle of greed and fear, which economists and philosophers have been studying for decades. Despite efforts to eliminate the boom-bust cycle in economies, it is clear that greed and fear will always be a part of human behavior. Understanding the origins of greed and fear can help make sense of economic fluctuations. Greed starts with the feeling that one deserves a reward for their efforts and views. This feeling is fueled by competition, adaptation, and social comparison. Delusion, recognition, and addictive behavior are subsequent stages of greed.
The Shift from Greed to Fear
As greed progresses, delusion creeps in, leading to overconfidence and increasingly risky behavior. When rewards are not sustained, victimhood emerges, followed by self-doubt and ignorance. Doubt spreads faster than optimism, and efforts are made to fix the problem. However, optimism fades, leaving a desire to not fall further behind. Eventually, survival mode takes over, and capitulation occurs. Fear peaks as negative thoughts dominate, and opportunities are avoided. Eventually, after a period of reflection, faults are recognized, leading to a vow to be rational and right in the future, restarting the cycle.
All greed starts with an innocent idea: that you are right, deserve to be right, and are owed something for the efforts you put into establishing your beliefs and opinions.
It’s a reasonable feeling. But it sets off a chain reaction that leads to an inevitable boom-and-bust cycle.
This episode explores one of the most important topics in investing: the lifecycle of greed and fear, and why it cannot, and will not, ever go away.
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