Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart The Market Is In A Topping Process | Cem Karsan
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Dec 4, 2025 In this discussion, Cem Karsan, the founder of Kai Volatility Advisors and a prominent market analyst, dives into the intricate dynamics of 2025's volatility forecasts. He highlights a significant market topping process and explains the shift from a low-rate environment. Karsan also connects populism and economic instability, examining historical election patterns that influence returns. He advocates for diversified strategies amidst rising stagflationary pressures, emphasizing a shift away from traditional portfolio structures toward innovative risk management approaches.
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Secular Regime Shift Toward Higher Volatility
- Cem Karsan says we have entered a different regime driven by demographics, populism, de-globalization, and rising structural inefficiency.
- He expects a multi-decade period of higher volatility and lower real returns, requiring a different investment playbook.
Market In A Broad Topping Process
- Karsan views the market as being in a broad topping process with valuations signaling risk of a meaningful decline ahead.
- He warns outcomes over a decade will look like a lot of chop and intermittent big moves, not steady gains.
Election Cycle Patterns In Populist Eras
- Karsan finds a striking pattern: presidential election years in past populist periods delivered big positive returns while midterm years produced large drawdowns.
- He links this to political incentives to stimulate ahead of elections and to heightened populist unrest.
