Gareth Evans, former Australian Foreign Minister, and Maria Rost Rublee, an expert in international security and nuclear politics, dive into the AUKUS alliance's implications. They discuss Australia’s first acquisition of conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarines and the regional anxieties this generates. The conversation highlights the contentious nuclear waste management challenges and the importance of community engagement. They also examine how Southeast Asian nations perceive AUKUS, reflecting on Australia's balancing act amidst U.S.-China tensions.
AUKUS raises regional concerns about Australia's diplomatic relationships, with some neighbors viewing closer ties to the U.S. as provocative.
The acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines necessitates Australia to establish robust regulatory frameworks and infrastructure for effective nuclear waste management.
Deep dives
Regional Diplomatic Concerns
Australia's alliance with the United States through AUKUS raises concerns among regional neighbors regarding its implications for diplomatic relationships. Many countries view Australia's return to a closer alignment with the Anglosphere as a potential threat, favoring engagement in regional partnerships instead. This perspective emphasizes the desire for a balanced approach between the U.S. and China, with countries worried that Australia's increased military capabilities could upset regional stability. The fear is that Australia’s commitment to the U.S. may lead to diminishing credibility and complicate the delicate diplomatic landscape in the region.
Implications of Nuclear Submarine Acquisition
The acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS presents significant concerns related to Australia's sovereignty and strategic independence. Critics argue that engaging deeply in this military partnership may compromise Australia's ability to retain decision-making authority, with fears that U.S. interests will take precedence over Australian priorities. The risk of being perceived as a subordinate ally, reminiscent of past experiences in military operations, heightens anxiety about operational deployment and control over these assets. Additionally, practical challenges in delivering the submarines could further question the feasibility and merits of this costly endeavor.
Nuclear Technology Management Challenges
Australia's readiness to manage nuclear technology associated with the AUKUS deal remains an enormous task, involving development across various expertise levels. Experts warn that while there are capable individuals within Australia’s nuclear sector, comprehensive infrastructure development is necessary to sustain operations related to nuclear submarines. The challenge includes not just technical training but also the establishment of robust regulatory frameworks and community engagement for nuclear waste disposal. Concerns arise regarding the slow pace of recruitment and retention of skilled personnel needed for managing nuclear capabilities and addressing high-level waste effectively.
Diverse Regional Reactions to AUKUS
Responses to AUKUS among Southeast Asian countries reflect a spectrum of perspectives on the implications for regional security dynamics. Some nations view the military strengthening of the U.S. alliance through initiatives like AUKUS as a beneficial counterbalance to China, while others express discomfort at the increasing presence of U.S. military assets in the region. This duality highlights concerns about potential miscalculations that could arise from heightened tensions between superpowers, exacerbated by Australia’s perceived role as an extension of U.S. interests. The challenge ahead lies in balancing these relationships while retaining a distinct and independent Australian foreign policy in the eyes of its neighbors.
AUKUS doesn't only affect us. From the time that it was announced there were mixed reactions from our neighbours - some who wanted in, and some who thought it unwise and provocative. A big part of the fear - both regionally and within Australia - concerns the nuclear question. As the first non-nuclear country to ever acquire a conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarine, can we be confident of our own safety? And what happens to the waste that will remain dangerous for generations of Australians to come?
*Correction: An earlier version of this caption suggested that Australia is acquiring a nuclear weapon, which is incorrect. The caption has been updated to reflect that Australia is acquiring conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarines.
GUESTS:
Gareth Evans - former Australian Foreign Minister (1988 –1996).
Maria Rost Rublee - Associate Professor of International Relations at Monash University, with expertise in international security and nuclear politics.
Dr Evan Laksmana - Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia Military Modernisation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).