In Moscow's Shadows In Moscow's Shadows 216: What Security Guarantees for Ukraine Might Work?
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Sep 14, 2025 Zelensky claims a security guarantee document for Ukraine is nearly finalized, sparking debate on its credibility. The discussion highlights the complexities of enabling effective military support while considering Western allies' hesitations. Strategies like NATO membership are weighed against economic implications for Ukraine's defense. Additionally, financing discussions reveal the potential of using seized Russian assets to balance sanctions with pathways to peace. The morality of supporting Ukraine is critically examined, emphasizing the significant human cost involved.
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What Makes Guarantees Effective
- Security guarantees must be credible, meaningful and sustainable to affect Putin's calculations.
- They must also reassure Kyiv enough for it to contemplate making concessions without fear of future abandonment.
Limits Of A Reassurance Force
- A European reassurance force faces political, logistical and credibility problems that may make it counterproductive.
- Moscow's likely veto and limited US willingness to backstop such troops reduce the force's value as a peace-enabler.
Why NATO Is Not The Quick Fix
- NATO membership and Article 5-like guarantees are not credible short-term answers for Ukraine's security.
- EU membership offers stronger legal aid obligations but remains a long-term prospect, not an immediate guarantee.
