Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Steven Major & Jim Caron
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Dec 23, 2025 Steven Major, a fixed-income veteran now with Tradition, shares insights on yield-curve positioning, highlighting the importance of the five-year/5-30s as a key metric for understanding Fed sensitivity. From Dubai, he discusses the city’s transformation into a global hub. Jim Caron, an experienced bond market manager, evaluates default risks and forecasts how bond markets will interact with equities, asserting that they won't undermine equity performance by 2026. A fascinating dive into the intricacies of the fixed-income landscape!
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Five-To-Thirty Is The Best Curve Read
- Use the 5-30 year segment as the best single read on the yield curve.
- It balances Fed sensitivity with longer-term cyclical information better than 2s or 10s.
Twos Track The Fed, Tens Track The Cycle
- Two-year yields mainly reflect Fed policy, not credit or sovereign risk.
- Ten-year yields embed more cyclical and data-driven trends beyond pure Fed influence.
Dubai Has Evolved Into A Destination City
- Steven Major contrasted old and new Dubai from firsthand visits during its boom.
- He argues Dubai has matured into a stable destination city compared with earlier shakier phases.