Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 4th, 2025
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Aug 4, 2025 
Ed Yardeni, Chief Investment Strategist and founder at Yardeni Research, explores the potential equity rally following President Trump's tariff deadline and recent leadership changes in the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute, analyzes the consumer outlook amid rising costs, highlighting a notable decline in personal consumption. Together, they discuss the interplay of tariffs, inflation, and economic resilience, providing insights into the current state of the U.S. economy.
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Labor Market Slowing Due To Uncertainty
- The labor market slowdown is mainly due to hiring pauses amid tariff-related uncertainty, not firing.
- The labor supply has plateaued, suggesting a potential worker shortage ahead.
BLS Head Firing Undermines Data Trust
- Firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics risks undermining confidence in labor data.
- Replacing the commissioner with a loyalist may degrade data integrity and market trust.
Use Multiple Labor Data Sources
- Use both public and private employment data sources due to skepticism about official figures.
- Don't abandon labor market data but remain cautious and supplement with alternative measures.