BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

The Housing Market is Changing (Deals Are Coming in Winter)

Oct 30, 2024

The housing market is showing signs of change, with potentially discounted real estate deals expected this winter. Despite a steep decline in home sales, prices remain high due to affordability issues and reluctant homeowners. The podcast explores predictions for mortgage rates and the potential for price drops. It emphasizes the need for patience among investors as they navigate a market impacted by high prices and low demand. Additionally, key insights into rent trends reveal contrasting opportunities worth considering.

31:09

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Quick takeaways

Despite a significant drop in home sales, high home prices persist due to limited supply and homeowner reluctance to sell.

Discounted real estate deals may emerge this winter as mortgage rates trend downward and some sellers become more flexible on prices.

Deep dives

Current State of Home Prices

National median home prices have reached an all-time high, currently sitting at $429,000, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase. This growth, while lower than the double-digit increases seen during the pandemic years, is still above the long-term average growth rate of about 3%, indicating a relatively normal year for the market. Additionally, this price growth surpasses current inflation rates, providing a positive sign for investors. Overall, while there is growth in home prices, this trend is beginning to slow down, suggesting a cooling down phase in the housing market.

Intro

8min

Understanding the Impact of Low Home Sales on Investors and the Economy

2min

Navigating the Current Housing Market: A Call for Patience

2min

Navigating the Housing Market in 2024

13min

Analyzing Rent Trends and Investment Opportunities in a Shifting Housing Market

4min

Discounted real estate deals could be coming THIS winter as the housing market begins to “thaw.” Today, Dave is flying solo, bringing you a housing market update on all the crucial factors real estate investors are looking at—home prices, mortgage rates, housing supply, and rent prices. Even with home sales falling by a massive margin, home prices are still at all-time highs, and the housing market is “stuck,” but we could see some sellers taking price cuts this winter if you’re willing to take advantage.

Okay, but how can home prices still be THIS high when the total home sales are twenty percent lower than average and around fifty percent under the recent highs? It’s simple—affordability struggles. High rates, high prices, and “locked-in” homeowners staying in place keep the market frozen. So, why does Dave believe sellers will be more inclined to drop their prices this winter? Where does he believe interest rates will be by the end of the year? And what’s the one thing that could get the housing market “unstuck”?

In This Episode We Cover:

Why Dave believes real estate deals are coming THIS winter

Mortgage rate predictions and how low rates could go by the end of this year

Whether to buy now or wait for affordability to improve, prices to drop, and rates to fall

Why home prices are still rising EVEN with homebuyer demand plummeting

The MASSIVE drop in home sales since the pandemic boom and why prices have remained high

And So Much More!

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