Nobel Prize-winner Richard Thaler and professors Nicholas Barberis and Toby Moskowitz share insights into biases in investment decisions. They challenge traditional views on rational decision-making, explore prospect theory, endowment effect, loss aversion, and overconfidence bias. They also discuss practical actions for rational investing and joke about physics guys detecting gravity waves.
Richard Thaler's work in behavioral economics challenged the traditional view of economists, showing that humans often act irrationally in their investment decisions.
Prospect theory suggests that people focus more on gains and losses rather than final wealth outcomes, impacting their investment decisions.
Deep dives
The Birth of Behavioral Economics
Richard Thaler, one of the pioneers of behavioral economics, began studying human behavior in relation to economics and investing, cataloging irrational and predictable mistakes made by individuals. For example, cab drivers in New York would work longer on days with low wages instead of busy days, which contradicted rational behavior. This non-conventional approach to understanding human behavior challenged the traditional view of economists who believed humans acted rationally. Thaler's work laid the foundation for behavioral economics and eventually earned him a Nobel Prize in 2017.
Shifting the Focus to Prospect Theory
A concept called expected utility theory, which assumes individuals make rational decisions by analyzing possible outcomes, was challenged by Nick Barbares and others in favor of prospect theory. Prospect theory, developed by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, suggests that people focus more on gains and losses rather than final wealth outcomes. This theory explains why people may be more risk-averse when faced with potential losses, impacting their investment decisions. Understanding this shift in focus is crucial in grasping how people truly process risk and make investment choices.
Biases and Irrational Behavior in Investment Decisions
Human biases play a significant role in investment decisions. Overconfidence, the endowment effect, and the influence of sunk costs can lead to sub-optimal choices. People tend to be overconfident in their abilities or the value of certain assets, resulting in excessive trading and acquisition activity. The endowment effect causes individuals to overvalue items they own, making it difficult to sell or let go. Sunk costs, such as losses on investments, often drive individuals to hold onto declining assets, hoping they will eventually recover. Recognizing and addressing these biases can help improve investment decision-making.
An all-star lineup walks us through some of the most common biases that creep into our investment decisions. The University of Chicago’s Richard Thaler, who won the 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics, shares some of his most surprising (and controversial) insights into behavioral finance. And we’re joined by two professors of economics at Yale University, Nicholas Barberis and AQR’s own Toby Moskowitz, who offer practical actions to keep us from falling into irrational patterns.
Disclaimer: This podcast was recorded on June 5, 2018.