The tastylive network Macro Money - November 6, 2025 - Stock Market Rebound Fails: Why, and What's Next?
Nov 6, 2025
The discussion dives into the sudden stock market sell-off following a brief rebound. Insights on ISM service data reveal surprise shifts in yields and affect market sentiment. Analysis of labor market signals suggests potential weakness, while contrasting PMIs paint a mixed economic picture. The Fed's policy conundrum emerges with conflicting inflation and labor signals. Amidst all this, the host shares his portfolio positioning strategies, balancing short risks and specific long plays as the economic landscape remains volatile.
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Broad Risk Aversion Returned
- U.S. stocks resumed selling after a one-day rebound driven by mixed signals, not a clear catalyst.
- Markets are showing generalized risk aversion while data and sentiment pull in different directions.
Services PMI Surprise Lifted Yields
- ISM services surprised to the upside at 54.2, signaling stronger-than-expected service-sector growth.
- That stronger reading had lifted yields and briefly supported risk assets before the reversal.
Stocks And Yields Falling Together
- Today's move flipped the prior day's dynamic: stocks and yields fell together, implying cyclical concern.
- Currency moves, especially a stronger yen, reflected yield sensitivity and risk-off positioning.