Episode 460: Pulling The SWR Levers In A Retirement Scenario, Test Portfolios, HSAs, And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 24, 2025

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Oct 26, 2025

Explore the art of retirement planning as experts dissect the three key levers of safe withdrawal rates. A listener's transition from a VTI-heavy portfolio to a modified golden ratio offers practical insights for resilience and tax efficiency. Delve into the strategic placement of treasuries and managed futures within tax-conscious accounts. The discussion also highlights the strategic use of Health Savings Accounts, including their benefits and limitations in retirement. Weekly portfolio reviews add context to the evolving markets.

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ADVICE

Separate Mandatory And Discretionary Expenses

Separate mandatory from discretionary expenses before retiring and model withdrawals accordingly.
Target mandatories near ~3% of portfolio withdrawals to preserve flexibility.

INSIGHT

Three Levers That Raise Your SWR

Safe withdrawal rates depend on portfolio design, baseline expenses, and personal inflation experience.
Retirees typically experience 1–2% lower inflation than CPI, boosting effective SWR by ~0.5–1%.

ADVICE

Tilt To Small‑Cap Value Slowly

Consider tilting equities toward small-cap value to raise historical SWR by ~0.5–1% and lower volatility.
Implement the tilt slowly, mindful of capital gains tax implications and tax lots.

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In this episode we answer emails from Eva, Jess and Mr. Toxic. We discuss the three levers of safe withdrawal rates applied to a listener's upcoming retirement situation, running test risk parity style portfolios to get some practice like with have done with Bigger Pockets money, and what little we know about HSAs.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center

How To Do An Asset Swap Video from Risk Parity Chronicles: How to Do an Asset Swap

Jackie Cummings Koski on Investing with HSAs: Investing With The Health Savings Account - Define Your Legacy W/ Jackie Cummings Koski

Bigger Pockets Money Test Risk Parity Style Portfolio: We Built a 5% SWR Retirement Portfolio Using Fidelity in 48 Minutes (Golden Ratio Portfolio)

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Most retirement plans stumble not on math, but on mechanics. We sit down with a listener who’s 55, VTI-heavy in a taxable account, and ready to pivot into a modified golden ratio portfolio—then unpack a practical path to move from concentration to resilient diversification without lighting up a massive tax bill. Along the way, we map out the three levers that quietly raise your safe withdrawal rate: portfolio design, baseline expenses, and personal inflation that often runs 1–2% below CPI.

We get specific on asset location and reallocation: placing treasuries and managed futures in tax-deferred accounts, using gold and equities where they’re most tax-efficient, and gradually trimming VTI by targeting favorable tax lots and capital gains brackets. If you’ve wondered whether a small cap value tilt can help, we explain how it can reduce volatility and lift a portfolio’s historical withdrawal capacity by roughly 0.5–1%—and how to pursue it at a measured pace. We also clear up a common confusion: rebalancing returns you to your target mix; reallocating changes the target itself.

Then we turn to HSAs. They’re a triple tax-advantaged powerhouse for you, but a poor inheritance vehicle for kids who must recognize the balance as income in a single year. We break down the strategy of saving receipts, the shift at age 65 when non-medical withdrawals are IRA-like, and why timing HSA spending for higher-income retirement years often makes sense. Don’t count on a costly end-of-life to “use it up”—many don’t have that trajectory. A smarter approach draws down the HSA earlier for qualified costs and Medicare premiums while avoiding a tax bomb for heirs.

We wrap with weekly portfolio reviews across classic and levered models and a reminder that simple beats clever: a resilient allocation, tax-savvy placement, and flexible spending can carry you from early retirement through Social Security and beyond. If this helped tighten your plan, follow the show, leave a review, and share it with a friend who’s staring down a VTI-heavy portfolio and wondering where to start.

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