RiskReversal Pod Never Doubt The American Consumer with Michelle Meyer, Mastercard's Chief Economist
Sep 19, 2025
Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at Mastercard, dives deep into consumer spending trends and macroeconomic shifts. She recounts her journey from Lehman Brothers during the crisis, highlighting lessons learned from the housing bubble. Meyer discusses the Fed's role in balancing inflation and employment amid economic uncertainty. She shares insights on tariffs, consumer behavior, and the importance of real-time data in predicting market trends. Meyer also emphasizes the resilience of the U.S. consumer, suggesting that their strength should not be underestimated as we approach year-end.
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Early Career Shaped By Lehman Collapse
- Michelle Meyer began her career at Lehman Brothers and studied the housing market just before the financial crisis.
- She learned how models break and how balance-sheet recessions reshape consumer behavior and markets.
Models Can Break During Big Shocks
- Historical relationships matter but can change, so models can fail during extraordinary shocks.
- Economists must pivot to episode-specific analysis like balance-sheet adjustments rather than relying solely on standard models.
Behavior Explains Survey Vs. Action Gaps
- Behavioral economics explains gaps between survey intentions and actual consumer actions.
- Tracking feelings versus real spending reveals when consumer signals will converge into meaningful trends.