Trump, Tariffs, Trade War, And Technology — With Alan Deardorff
Nov 4, 2024
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Alan Deardorff, a professor emeritus of international economics at the University of Michigan, dives into the intricate world of tariffs and trade on the eve of the elections. He discusses the contrasting views of Trump and Harris on trade policies and the potential risks posed to U.S. tech companies by a trade war. The conversation also scrutinizes China's practices, the implications for electric vehicles, and how tariffs could reshape retailer strategies. Deardorff concludes with insights on currency debasement and the stability of the U.S. dollar.
The proposed tariffs by Trump could significantly increase costs for tech companies like Apple and Amazon, destabilizing their supply chains.
There is a political shift towards protectionism affecting trade policy, suggesting long-term ramifications for global trade mechanisms and economic stability.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on Silicon Valley
The discussion highlights the potential repercussions of tariffs on Silicon Valley, particularly focusing on tech companies heavily reliant on international trade. A significant point raised is Trump's proposed tariffs, which could reach 60% on imports from China, potentially destabilizing not only trade relations but also the supply chains that tech companies like Apple and Amazon depend on. The professor emphasizes that these tariffs could lead to higher consumer prices and retaliatory measures from China, suggesting a significant shift in the operational landscape for many tech firms. Ultimately, the impact of these tariffs could hinder Silicon Valley's growth by increasing costs and complicating access to crucial components required for production.
Trade Policy and Economic Shifts
The conversation addresses the evolving attitude toward trade policy, asserting that there has been a noticeable shift in political sentiment towards protectionism, particularly within the Republican Party since the Trump administration. Historically, both parties had their trade positions, but the current political climate appears increasingly hostile towards global trade mechanisms that were once favored. This change is likely to result in more tariffs and less focus on free trade agreements, driving a wedge between economic theory and political practice. The implication here is that while economists argue for the benefits of free trade, politicians are leaning towards protectionist policies, which may negatively impact economic stability in the long term.
Challenges for Semiconductor Manufacturing
The podcast highlights the critical role of semiconductors in the tech industry and the potential consequences of heightened tariffs on these essential components. The discussion notes that U.S. tariffs on semiconductors are already in place and are set to increase, complicating the landscape for companies reliant on these materials. As major tech players like Intel express the challenges of building semiconductor factories domestically—acknowledging it could take years—the urgency for U.S. manufacturers to ramp up production is apparent. The conversation suggests that while tariffs may encourage local production, logistical and temporal challenges could undermine that strategy, leaving companies exposed to ongoing supply chain vulnerabilities.
Future of Manufacturing in the U.S.
The health of U.S. manufacturing is called into question with respect to the future of tariffs and trade policy, arguing that these tariffs alone will not revive manufacturing jobs that have been in decline for decades. The professor highlights that automation and technological advancements are primarily responsible for reduced employment in manufacturing, regardless of trade policies. Even as tariffs are imposed, they are unlikely to lead to a significant return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S., as companies optimize for efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Therefore, manufacturing output may remain stable, but employment levels might not recover, resulting in a continued gap in job security within manufacturing sectors across the country.
Alan Deardorff is a professor emeritus of international economics and public policy at the University of Michigan. He joins Big Technology Podcast for a special episode on the eve of election day to discuss the difference between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on tariffs and international trade, and whether a trade war might harm U.S. tech companies. We also debate the merits of free trade, and whether it leaves people better off. Stay tuned for the second half where we talk about Apple, Amazon, and potential currency debasement.
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