Bloomberg Surveillance: Gary Cohn on Inflation, Tax Cuts
Jan 24, 2024
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Former US National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn discusses the normalization of the Fed cycle and the impact of inflation on US consumers. The podcast also explores the shifting dynamics of financial markets, the challenges of working with economic data, and the potential of a tariff wall and tax plan.
The US economy is gradually heading towards normalcy, targeting a 3% GDP growth rate, 3% unemployment, and 3% wage growth.
The 2017 tax cuts stimulated manufacturing growth, increased consumption, and disposable income, but potential discussions on tariffs as a means to finance future tax plans are still in the concept stage.
Deep dives
Returning to Normalcy
The podcast discusses the journey towards returning to normalcy in the US economy. The speaker reflects on the pre-2008 era and highlights the dominant role of the Fed since the financial crisis, with zero interest rates and quantitative easing. With the COVID pandemic and multiple stimulus packages, the US economy is experiencing high inflation and a surge in consumer spending. However, the speaker believes that the US economy is gradually heading towards normalcy, aiming for a 3% GDP growth rate, 3% unemployment, and 3% wage growth.
Impacts of Tax Cuts
The podcast explores the significance of the 2017 tax cuts for the US economy. It mentions the repatriation of overseas money, which stimulated manufacturing growth in the country. The tax cuts also resulted in increased consumption and disposable income for hardworking individuals. However, the impacts of the tax cuts take time to manifest fully, and the expiration of certain programs is being considered for reinstatement through bipartisan legislation.
Discussions on Tariffs
The podcast touches upon the potential discussions around tariffs as a means to finance future tax plans. Although it acknowledges the idea of a tariff wall, it emphasizes that it is still in the concept stage. The feasibility of implementing tariffs depends on factors such as the makeup of Congress and the method of policy implementation. The speaker highlights the importance of electoral processes as a platform for potential candidates and incumbents to present their ideas, emphasizing that these ideas are starting points rather than definitive solutions.
IBM Vice Chairman and former US National Economic Council Director under the Trump administration Gary Cohn says the Fed cycle is finally becoming more normal. Speaking to Bloomberg Surveillance host Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Annmarie Hordern, Cohn adds US consumers partly feel bad though because of the peculiar compounding effect of inflation.