In this podcast, the host discusses Amazon's Project Kuiper and their decision to switch launch vehicles. They explore the limitations of Atlas V rockets and the financial transactions involved. They also talk about FCC guidelines for satellite launches and the challenges surrounding upcoming rocket flights.
Amazon's Project Kuiper faces significant challenges in meeting FCC guidelines for satellite deployment, raising concerns about its overall viability and potential impact on the industry.
Amazon's decision to move their Project Kuiper prototypes from Vulcan to Atlas V, and their avoidance of flying on SpaceX vehicles, demonstrates their focus on finding alternative launch providers and ensuring timely satellite deployment.
Deep dives
Project Kuiper and the Challenges Ahead
Project Kuiper is Amazon's ambitious plan to launch a constellation of 3,236 satellites to provide global internet access. However, they face significant challenges in meeting the FCC guidelines that require half of the constellation to be deployed by July 2026. Currently, they have only launched two prototype satellites and have a total of eight Atlas V launches planned. The schedules for the other launch vehicles, Vulcan, New Glenn, and Ariane 6, remain uncertain, with delays expected. In an optimistic scenario, they could launch a total of 866 satellites, leaving them 752 satellites behind the required number by the FCC guidelines. This raises concerns about the overall viability of the project and the potential impact on the industry, as Amazon's struggles may deter future investment in similar endeavors.
Recent News and Launch Vehicle Changes
In recent news, Amazon decided to move their first two prototype satellites from United Launch Alliance's Vulcan to the Atlas V vehicle. This change was due to the delay in Vulcan's first launch, and Amazon's need to get these satellites into orbit. They have nine Atlas V launches planned, with the first launch scheduled for next month. The Atlas V 501 configuration, which will be used, can carry more than the two prototype satellites, so the choice was not limited by payload capacity. Additionally, Amazon's decision to avoid flying on SpaceX vehicles, due to historical bad blood and conflicts with individuals involved in the Project Kuiper team, has led them to focus on other launch providers.
Financial Investment and Budgeting Challenges
Amazon has allocated a significant budget for Project Kuiper, publicly stating a figure of $10 billion, although the actual expenditure is expected to be much higher. Between now and 2028, Amazon is projected to spend $7.4 billion on satellite launch and related services, primarily with Blue Origin's New Glenn, United Launch Alliance's Vulcan, and undisclosed third parties. This figure does not include the cost of the nine Atlas V and 18 Ariane 6 launches that Amazon has also purchased. The discrepancy between the publicized budget and the reported expenditures raises questions about the accuracy and feasibility of Amazon's financial projections for the project.
Uncertain Launch Schedule and Production Challenges
The ambitious timeline for Project Kuiper requires a rapid deployment of 1,618 satellites within the next three years. However, the launch schedules for Vulcan, New Glenn, and Ariane 6 remain uncertain, with delays expected for each of these vehicles. Furthermore, the strategy of continuing to fly the two prototype satellites on the Atlas V raises questions about the status of satellite production. It is unclear if Amazon has already produced a significant number of satellites or if they are waiting on the outcome of these prototype launches before proceeding with mass production. The lack of transparency regarding satellite production and the reliance on a limited number of launches raises concerns about the overall progress and scalability of the Project Kuiper constellation.
Amazon moved their Project Kuiper prototypes from Vulcan to Atlas V. Between that and some recent conversations I’ve had, I thought it would be a good time to check in on Kuiper and to see how they’re progressing towards deployment. I do some math, and it’s not good.
This episode of Main Engine Cut Off is brought to you by 34 executive producers—Chris, Donald, Dawn Aerospace, Will, Tim Dodd (the Everyday Astronaut), Benjamin, Steve, Theo and Violet, Pat, Russell, The Astrogators at SEE, Harrison, Tyler, Jan, Bob, Kris, Lars from Agile Space, Pat from KC, Ryan, Lee, Stealth Julian, Warren, Craig from SpaceHappyHour.com, Fred, Matt, Frank, SmallSpark Space Systems, Joel, David, Joonas, and four anonymous—and 830 other supporters.
Barry Jenakuns on X: “Fun fact, because Bezos own's Blue Origin, Amazon have to declare how much money they spend(/receive) on them. Assuming that this is for the 27 launch option, the $2.7 billion spent would give a per launch cost for New Glenn of $100 million.”