Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

What's Trump's plan with Iran, and beyond? - with Niall Ferguson

17 snips
Feb 2, 2026
Niall Ferguson, historian and Hoover Institution senior fellow known for work on empires and geopolitics, joins to map Trump’s use of leverage, unpredictability, and selective force. Short takes cover possible US strikes on Iran, Turkey’s mediation and Erdoğan’s aims, why Iran’s protests faltered, regime alteration versus regime change, Europe’s limits, and the wider Cold War II framing.
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INSIGHT

Regime Alteration, Not Nation Building

  • Niall Ferguson argues Trump's Iran moves are regime alteration, not nation-building regime change.
  • Regime alteration aims to shift a state from the authoritarian axis into the American camp without remaking its political system.
INSIGHT

Why Mass Protests Often Fail

  • Ferguson warns popular protests rarely topple revolutionary regimes without outside intervention.
  • Revolutionary regimes are ruthless and counter-revolutions typically fail or are crushed.
ADVICE

Target Command Centers, Not Cities

  • Use precision strikes to remove regime command-and-control rather than general bombing to help political goals.
  • Ferguson suggests targeted strikes can degrade nuclear and military capabilities without broad air campaigns.
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