Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the decline in bond yields and the spike in oil prices. They also explore market sentiment, trading opportunities, and the wisdom of Warren Buffett amidst market chaos.
The bond market signals that the Federal Reserve may be done raising rates, indicating a positive outlook for stocks.
Commodities like oil and industrial metals are experiencing varying trends, presenting potential buying opportunities in the energy sector.
Deep dives
Market sentiment and stock performance
The stock market has been relatively steady, with stocks trading unchanged for most of the day. There is a shift in market sentiment from negative to positive, evident from the recovery in the AAII bulls index and the CNN fear and greed index. While there may not be a runaway performance chasing phase yet, many investors who missed the recent rally are waiting for a dip to enter the market. Seasonality tailwinds and potential breakouts, such as the recent two sigma breakout in gold miners, suggest there are still trading opportunities in the market.
The macroeconomic outlook
The market is showing signs of a changing macro cycle. The bond market, in particular, signals that the Federal Reserve may be done raising rates, with two-year yields coming down and ten-year yields falling below the 100-day moving average. This change in trend, coupled with bullish sentiment and positive positioning, suggests that the S&P and the overall market may continue to rally. While there can be ebb and flow and minor pullbacks, the conditions currently favor a positive outlook for stocks.
Implications of the Fed's actions and interest rates
The recent comment by a Fed official about interest rates being high enough to tame inflation and slow the economy has impacted yields and the dollar. This follows the market reaction to the CPI number in November, which triggered a massive stock market rally and a drop in yields. The bond market's clear message that the Federal Reserve is done raising rates has shifted sentiment and positioning, presenting favorable opportunities for tactical trades and a bullish outlook for stocks.
The state of commodities and cryptocurrencies
Commodities like oil, natural gas, and industrial metals are experiencing varying trends. Oil prices have had a significant pullback, but the energy sector remains resilient, indicating strength and potential buying opportunities. On the other hand, industrial metals, like copper, have lost their upside momentum and are not showing any significant breakouts. Meanwhile, in the crypto market, bullish sentiment is growing, with Bitcoin showing strength and positive signals after recent regulatory issues have been resolved.
Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the latest market movements, particularly the decline in bond yields and the spike in oil prices ahead of Thursday's OPEC + meeting. You can find more of Tony's independent research and trade ideas here: www.tgmacro.com
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