Ron Gross and Matt Argersinger dive into big tech's massive spending on cloud capabilities and AI growth. They discuss why recent job numbers surge hints at a potential rate cut in 2024. Intel's shocking dividend cut raises historical concerns, while Apple and Meta remain resilient amidst a tough earnings season. With Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet investing $45 billion this quarter, they analyze the market's cautious reception of these ambitious moves. Plus, insights into Mercado Libre and Designer Brands make for a compelling stock conversation.
Major tech firms are heavily investing in cloud capabilities to position themselves for future AI growth despite market skepticism about these expenditures.
Recent job reports indicate economic concerns and potential recession, highlighting the challenges faced by tech companies such as Intel amid restructuring.
Deep dives
Impact of Jobs Data on Market Sentiment
An increase of only 114,000 jobs, significantly below the consensus estimate of 175,000, signals economic concerns. The downward revisions to previous months' job figures contribute to worries about a possible recession, as highlighted by the trigger of the SOM rule, a recession indicator based on unemployment trends. These developments have led to cautious trading in the market, with questions emerging about the Federal Reserve's timing on potential rate cuts. The combination of stagnant job growth and the Fed’s recent decisions has left investors pondering whether a recession could indeed be on the horizon.
Tech Industry Struggles with Major Declines
Intel's recent announcement of cutting 15,000 jobs reflects broader challenges within the tech sector, resulting in a 25% drop in their stock price. The company's leadership has faced scrutiny over their slow turnaround and lack of credibility with investors, having suspended their dividend just a year after promising stability. This turmoil is indicative of how the market is reacting to shifting dynamics within major tech firms as they grapple with restructuring and competition. As investors lose faith in leaders, the tech landscape could see further volatility due to declining consumer trust in these companies.
Positive Growth Trends at Apple and Meta
Apple's services revenue showed a 14% year-over-year increase, highlighting strength in that sector despite a small decline in iPhone sales. Investors are optimistic about the upcoming AI integrations that could rejuvenate hardware sales, particularly with the expected iPhone 15 upgrade cycle. Meta also reported strong earnings with a 22% revenue increase, demonstrating resilience in ad sales and user engagement. Despite a significant loss in their Reality Labs division focused on the metaverse, Meta's financial metrics suggest that the company is stabilizing and becoming more efficient.
Cloud Spending and AI Investments Shape the Future
Cloud services are becoming increasingly critical as evidenced by major tech firms like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet ramping up their investments. Microsoft reported a 29% growth in its Azure cloud services, emphasizing their commitment to AI, although some expectations fell short. Similarly, Amazon's AWS segment showed strong growth at 19%, yet the market reacted negatively due to lower guidance forecasts. Overall, the significant capital expenditures across the board reflect a strategic shift towards maintaining competitive advantages amid the burgeoning AI landscape, highlighting the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta are all spending a ton of money to build out cloud capabilities to fuel the next phase of AI growth. But the market isn’t sold on that spend yet.
(00:21) Ron Gross and Matt Argersinger discuss:
- Why recent job numbers dramatically boosted the likelihood of a rate cut in 2024.
- Intel’s dividend cut, and what history has to say about companies that stop payments to shareholders.
- Why Apple and Meta are holding up well during a tough earnings season for big tech.
- Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet’s combined $45B in capital expenditures this quarter, and how investors should be thinking about this investment phase in AI.
(31:41) Ron and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Designer Brands and MercadoLibre.