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Gold to $20k? Tavi Costa on the Great Rotation That Will Reshape Markets

16 snips
May 14, 2025
Tavi Costa, a macro strategist at Crescat Capital, dives into the tantalizing prospects of gold, asserting it remains undervalued and could exceed $20,000. He outlines the 'Great Rotation' away from overvalued stocks towards hard assets like gold and silver. Costa discusses the looming trouble for traditional 60/40 portfolios, why U.S. debt pressures the dollar, and the potential collapse of the 2-year Treasury yield. He also highlights silver as possibly the cheapest metal and predicts a surge in commodity demand due to AI and infrastructure needs.
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INSIGHT

Understanding the Great Rotation

  • The Great Rotation is a shift from overvalued U.S. equities to undervalued hard assets like gold and commodities.
  • Deglobalization and declining dollar strength are key drivers of this macroeconomic trend.
INSIGHT

60/40 Portfolio Challenges Ahead

  • The historic performance of U.S. equities and corporate earnings growth is unlikely to repeat for the next 15 years.
  • The 60/40 portfolio is at risk because treasuries may no longer provide a safe hedge when stocks decline simultaneously.
INSIGHT

Commodities Undervalued vs Equities

  • Commodities are at historic relative lows compared to equities, signaling undervaluation.
  • A weakening dollar and shifting capital flows to international and natural resource assets will drive commodity prices higher.
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