The Challenges of Polling Accuracy

Polling accuracy has become a significant concern following the discrepancies observed in the last two presidential elections. Analysts note that polls underestimated Donald Trump's support, particularly from non-college-educated white voters, which skewed predictions about the election outcomes. The 2016 election highlighted how crucial state-level polling is since a lack of data in swing states led to unexpected results. This trend continued into 2020, where even established polling organizations failed to predict turnout accurately, leaving the industry facing intense scrutiny.