Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Could The Weakening Jobs Market Actually Be GOOD For The Economy? | Michael Kantrowitz
Oct 2, 2025
In this engaging conversation, Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, shares his insights on the economy using his HOPE framework. He argues that a weakening jobs market could lead to disinflation, lower interest rates, and robust economic recovery. Michael highlights how historical trends show that markets can rise even when unemployment increases. He also discusses the implications for housing, the potential risks of AI valuations, and the importance of an active investment approach during these shifting economic conditions.
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Historical Precedent For Today's Soft Jobs Pattern
- Michael notes the current softer employment and rate decline pattern isn't unprecedented if you look back 60 years.
- He frames it as a 'no pain, no gain' backstop peculiar to the post-2022 inflation era.
HOPE: Sequence Of Recovery Signals
- The HOPE framework tracks Housing, Orders (PMIs), Profits, Employment to map cycle stages.
- Housing leads, then orders, then profits, with employment the lagging signal for broad contractions or recoveries.
Soft Jobs Can Create Goldilocks Conditions
- Michael Kantrowitz calls the current setup a 'Goldilocks' backdrop: softer employment, falling rates, disinflation, and low oil.
- This mix can broaden economic activity and support equities even without a booming recovery.