Stratechery Trade, Tariffs, and Tech
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Apr 7, 2025 Exploring the military and economic repercussions of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the discussion highlights the profound impact on global supply chains. The historical trade dynamics between the U.S. and China reveal the complexities of tariffs and their influence on manufacturing. A look back at the Nixon administration's bold economic policies sheds light on modern fiscal challenges. Finally, insights into the Trump-era trade policies and their effects on major tech firms illustrate the evolving landscape of tariffs and innovation.
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Taiwan Invasion Impact
- A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would disrupt global supply chains, regardless of the victor.
- This disruption stems from China's removal from these chains and the destruction of Taiwan's economic output.
China's Impact on US Economy
- The US leveraged aid, investment, and its market to rebuild post-WWII economies, leading to foreign export and US debt purchase.
- China's entry amplified US deficits, kept the dollar high, and shifted manufacturing abroad.
Jobs and Obama on Manufacturing
- Steve Jobs told President Obama that Apple's 700,000 factory workers in China were supported by 30,000 engineers.
- Jobs claimed the US lacked a sufficient number of trained engineers, hindering domestic manufacturing.