The Story
Trump vs Iran: deal or war?
Apr 9, 2025
In a riveting discussion, Holly Dagres, a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute, and Sanam Vakil, Director at Chatham House, delve into the precarious U.S.-Iran relations. They dissect the potential outcomes of U.S. negotiations and the looming threat of military action. The conversation highlights the internal divisions within both the Trump administration and Iranian society over war and diplomacy. Listeners gain insights into Iran's socio-political unrest, the nuclear dilemma, and the complex interplay of sanctions and public sentiment in shaping future outcomes.
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Quick takeaways
- The Trump administration's pressure on Iran has led to significant economic hardships, transforming public sentiment towards regime accountability rather than solely blaming sanctions.
- Internal divisions within the Trump administration influence the approach to negotiations with Iran, reflecting a delicate balance between military action and diplomatic solutions.
Deep dives
The Fallout of Maximum Pressure on Iran
The Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign targets Iran's economy to force changes in its behavior, stemming from the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement in 2018. This policy has resulted in significant economic hardships for ordinary Iranians, who face skyrocketing prices, such as a 217% increase in potato costs, and a 50% drop in the value of their currency. Public sentiment has shifted from blaming Western sanctions to holding their government accountable for systemic corruption and mismanagement, leading to ongoing protests against the regime. As negotiations with the U.S. loom, Iran's desperate economic conditions heighten the stakes for engagement.
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